When the "Software MegaCorp Sues Over Some Patent" scenario was tossed about, it was usually Microsoft cast as the villain, with the usual "Watch out for Google!" voice or two. Yet, after Oracle acquired Sun, it wasn't really a surprise to learn they were choosing to be less "open" and more "profit oriented".

It isn't like Sun's open source strategy was working all that well for them. What isn't clear is what part it played in what looks a lot like an inevitable fall. Sure, during the dotcom years, Sun was the stuff to use, but that has become less true every year. It was obvious that a lot of people had recognized Linux as a "good enough" Unix.

Maybe that's why Sun's commitment to OSS always seemed half-hearted: because it was. Releasing some of their best technology was Sun's attempt to stay relevant. Open source software was eating away from the bottom, technologically. Directly at the operating system, and indirectly through the developer and sysadmin ecosystems. Sun was doomed - their OSS efforts were just a side-adventure.

It would be nice if Oracle had noticed that operating systems weren't a particularly cost-effective way to spend one's time. I would be nice if they had noticed that, and released OpenSolaris under the most permissive license possible, so that they wouldn't have to do that work.

Thing is, Oracle isn't nice. If anything, Oracle envies Microsoft's reputation, and wants to do them one better.

Microsoft must be loving it. I'm sure they've wondered what would happen if they were to chase the patents they claim to have. Now, they'll have a much better idea, and will be letting someone else make all of the mistakes.

Also, they get to point out that their licenses are more permissive than Oracle's, they've only used their portfolio defensively, and a few more PR-talking points which nobody believes. If anything, it might be better to assume if MS hasn't explicitly stated they won't sue about something, then they will.

Oracle will probably leverage the Solaris platform to build appliance-like application clusters. Everything is there to have on-demand database and application scaling; they just need to bring it all together. Why would they want to make it easier for others to compete in that space?

Personally, I don't think they'll pull it off. There's just too much of a culture clash between the two companies. Java will remain mostly unaffected, OpenSolaris is doomed, Oracle won't be able to keep Solaris itself relevant, except as their own platform. They won't die, but the fight will diminish them. Everybody will continue to hate Windows, while using it.